Political Risk:
Critical
Score:
16/100
Defence and Security Policy and Policy Transparency
Q1
33/100
Is there formal provision for effective and independent legislative scrutiny of defence policy?
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There is no explicit formal provision for effective independent legislative scrutiny of defence policy. Article 76 of the Constitution states that the “The Islamic…
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The Parliament does not openly debate or review defence policy. Evidence suggests it irregularly holds closed-door sessions [1]. The Parliament has exercised budgetary power,…
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The current government administration wants to strengthen the army (responsible for protecting Iran’s borders) at the expense of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC),…
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Q2
38/100
Does the country have an identifiable and effective parliamentary defence and security committee (or similar such organisations) to exercise oversight?
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There is a National Security and Foreign Policy Committee. Its formal rights are laid out in Article 53 of the Rules of Procedure of…
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The list of members of the committee and their educational status is available online. Few of the current members seem to have expertise in…
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Noting that the question asks about reviews of “major” defence policies, not responses to incidents, the National Security and Foreign Policy Committee is not…
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The National Security and Foreign Policy Committee appears to meet regularly. The National Security and Foreign Policy Commission is often given the opportunity to…
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There is limited evidence that long term independent investigations into the defence affairs of the country are conducted, or commissioned by the National Security…
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Ministries do incorporate recommendations of the National Security and Foreign Policy Committee into practice, and they are not minor changes only. The committee plays…
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Q3
13/100
Is the country’s national defence policy or national security strategy debated and publicly available?
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Individuals within the executive and the legislative speak about the defence policy or security strategy, but there is little debate or discussion [1, 2].…
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Discussion of defence policy and security strategy focuses on major threats, which are, according to Iranian officials, US “adventurism”, Israel, Saudi Arabia, terrorists, tackling…
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There is no formal consultation process on defence issues in place. A consultation like that is unheard of in Iran. For example, during the…
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No defence policy or strategy document has been released since the unveiling of the Civil Defence National Strategy Document in 2014, as was reported…
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Q4
0/100
Do defence and security institutions have a policy, or evidence, of openness towards civil society organisations (CSOs) when dealing with issues of corruption?
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No formal or informal policy requires openness towards civil society organisations (CSOs) in the defence sector [1]. Under the Rouhani government, the stance towards…
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Although sporadic acts of protest occur, and these are becoming more frequent, these are rarely concerned with the defence sector, usually, they relate more…
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There have been no noted requests by NGOs to work in the defence sector [1]. This is unlikely to occur due to the risk…
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Q5
38/100
Has the country signed up to the following international anti-corruption instruments: UNCAC and the OECD Convention?
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Iran has signed up to and ratified the United Nations Conventions against Corruption (UNCAC). The country exports weapons within its region; however, it does…
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Review Cycle 1 for Chapters III and IV of the Convention has taken place [1]. Iran has made efforts to comply with both Chapters…
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Q6
25/100
Is there evidence of regular, active public debate on issues of defence? If yes, does the government participate in this debate?
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Public debate about defence issues is becoming more common in Iran, but it remains limited. At university events in December 2016 and April 2017,…
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Military officials primarily provide about information defence issues. Commanders sometimes give exclusive interviews to selected media, but these are mainly a one-way discourse because…
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Q7
50/100
Does the country have an openly stated and effectively implemented anti-corruption policy for the defence sector?
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There is currently an anti-corruption drive within Iran – and an explicitly stated anti-corruption policy [1]. Although, it is unclear whether this applies to…
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This indicator is marked as Not Applicable, as the country has an explicitly stated anti-corruption policy [1]; however, it is unclear if this applies…
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Q8
17/100
Are there independent, well-resourced, and effective institutions within defence and security tasked with building integrity and countering corruption?
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Iran also has the General Organisation of Inspection. Although it has the power to investigate defence and security forces, there is no publicly available…
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The Basiji Volunteer Militia is one of the five main units of the IRGC is under the political control of the supreme leader [1,…
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Whilst these institutions and units may be aware of the topic of corruption, there is no evidence to imply that staff within the units…
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Q9
NS/100
Does the public trust the institutions of defence and security to tackle the issue of bribery and corruption in their establishments?
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This indicator is not assigned a score in the GDI. There are no surveys to answer this exact question, and Iran is not included…
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Q10
0/100
Are there regular assessments of the areas of greatest corruption risk for ministry and armed forces personnel, and are the findings used as inputs to the anti-corruption policy?
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There is no evidence to indicate that a defence-specific assessment of corruption risk has been commissioned or taken place in the last two to…
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This indicator is marked Not Applicable, as there is no evidence to indicate that risk assessments are conducted [1].
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This indicator is marked Not Applicable, as there is no evidence to indicate that risk assessments are conducted [1].
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Defence Budgets
Q11
8/100
Does the country have a process for acquisition planning that involves clear oversight, and is it publicly available?
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There may be a defined process for acquisition planning, but it is not made publicly available. The Law of the Armed Forces states that…
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There is no transparency over the acquision planning process [1, 2].
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There is no external oversight of the acquisition planning process [1, 2].
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Q12
25/100
Is the defence budget transparent, showing key items of expenditure? And it is provided to the legislature in a timely fashion?
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The defence budget is presented as part of the general budget and gives aggregate figures for some recipient organisations and activities, such as the…
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The legislature is likely to receive misleading or inaccurate information on proposed defence expenditures [1], as is evident from the example provided. Parts of…
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Q13
0/100
Is there a legislative committee (or other appropriate body) responsible for defence budget scrutiny and analysis in an effective way?
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A committee exists, the National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, but it lacks formal rights to scrutinise the defence budget [1].
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This indicator is marked Not Applicable, as the National Security and Foreign Policy Committee lacks formal rights to scrutinise the defence budget [1].
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Q14
25/100
Is the approved defence budget made publicly available? In practice, can citizens, civil society, and the media obtain detailed information on the defence budget?
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Segments of the budget are made available in the general budget. Some budgetary explanation, such as Iran is spending less than its neighbours, is…
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Some areas of the defence budget are publicly available in an aggregate format [1]. There is no evidence of proper oversight of the defence…
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It is extremely difficult or impossible to obtain any details on the defence budget, other than that published in aggregate format in the budget…
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Q15
25/100
Are sources of defence income other than from central government allocation (from equipment sales or property disposal, for example) published and scrutinised?
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While non-central government sources of funding are available to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) for example, information on the sources of funding are…
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The mandate of the General Inspection Organisation of Iran includes the supervision and inspection of all organisations and institutions affiliated with the judiciary, military…
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There is some scrutiny by the local media of non-central government sources of funding, but this is extremely limited, and neither inconsistent not in-depth…
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Q16
0/100
Is there an effective internal audit process for defence ministry expenditure (that is, for example, transparent, conducted by appropriately skilled individuals, and subject to parliamentary oversight)?
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There are no reports whatsoever of audits of the defence ministry’s expenditure being audited in practice. One interview from the 2015 assessment maintained that…
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This indicator is marked Not Applicable, as no evidence was found of enabling oversight of an internal audit function, by, for example, parliamentary committees,…
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No evidence was found of external scrutiny of the internal audit function [1].
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This indicator is marked Not Applicable, as there is no evidence of any audit findings, which the ministry could take incorporate into its practices…
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Q17
0/100
Is there effective and transparent external auditing of military defence expenditure?
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Article 55 of the Constitution states: “In accordance with the procedure specified by law the Accounts Bureau will inspect and audit all the accounts…
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This indicator is marked Not Applicable, as no evidence was found to indicate that external audit of the Defence Ministry’s expenditure takes place in…
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This indicator is marked Not Applicable, as no evidence was found to indicate that external audit of the Defence Ministry’s expenditure takes place in…
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This indicator is marked Not Applicable, as no evidence was found to indicate that external audit of the Defence Ministry’s expenditure takes place in…
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Nexus of Defence and National Assets
Q18
15/100
Is there evidence that the country’s defence institutions have controlling or financial interests in businesses associated with the country’s natural resource exploitation and, if so, are these interests publicly stated and subject to scrutiny?
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While defence institutions are, not by statutory or constitutional means, removed from having controlling or financial interests in businesses associated with the country’s natural…
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Defence institutions’ involvement in relation to the country’s natural resource exploitation is widespread but considered legal. It takes place on a macro-economic scale. The…
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Individual defence personnel involvement in businesses relating to Iran’s natural resource exploitation is common in areas with major revenue streams. However, it is unknown…
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They are not publicly declared in a formal declaration, but they are publicly known. Some companies are listed in the official gazette. On occasion,…
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There is little evidence of defence institutions financial interests in businesses associated with the country’s natural resources exploitation being subject to any form of…
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Organised Crime
Q19
25/100
Is there evidence, for example through media investigations or prosecution reports, of a penetration of organised crime into the defence and security sector? If no, is there evidence that the government is alert and prepared for this risk?
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There is a strong likelihood that organised crime has penetrated the sector, and there is confirmation from the US government, which is currently strongly…
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The current administration is aware of the possibility of organised crime in the defence and security sector, but its actions have for the moment…
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Q20
17/100
Is there policing to investigate corruption and organised crime within the defence services and is there evidence of the effectiveness of this policing?
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There is a counter-intelligence group within the Law Enforcement Force of Iran, which is responsible for identifying foreign spies and corrupt police. However, it…
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These policing functions are subject to considerable and regular undue influence from top military officials or the executive. Undue influence from the Supreme Leader,…
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It would seem that cases are only occasionally investigated [1]. There is evidence of undue influence from the Supreme Leader in the decision-making process,…
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Control of Intelligence Services
Q21
0/100
Are the policies, administration, and budgets of the intelligence services subject to effective and independent oversight?
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Both the intelligence services of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the Ministry of Intelligence are not subject to any independent oversight. Rights…
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This indicator is marked Not Applicable, as there is no independent oversight of the intelligence service’s policies, administration, and budgets [1, 2].
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Q22
17/100
Are senior positions within the intelligence services filled on the basis of objective selection criteria, and are appointees subject to investigation of their suitability and prior conduct?
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The criteria for selection of senior posts are not publicly available [1]. The profile of the current Minister of Intelligence was made publicly available…
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The minister of intelligence is appointed by the president and approved by Parliament, but the supreme leader has the final say [1]. According to…
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Candidates for the Ministry of Intelligence are said to go through a stringent vetting process [1, 2], although there is no evidence of full…
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Export Controls
Q23
0/100
Does the government have a well-scrutinised process for arms export decisions that aligns with Articles 7.1.iv, 11.5, and 15.6 of the Arms Trade Treaty (ATT)?
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Iran has not signed up to the Arms Trade Treaty (ATT) [1].
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This indicator is marked Not Applicable, as Iran has not signed up to the ATT [1].
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Iran is under an arms embargo; therefore, its arms exports are considered illicit. They are not debated by Parliament [1]. However, according to SIPRI’s…
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Lobbying in Defence
Iran has no framework for regulating lobbying activity [1, 2].
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This indicator is marked Not Applicable, as the country does not have legislation that regulates lobbying [1, 2].
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This indicator is marked Not Applicable, as the country does not have legislation that regulates lobbying [1, 2].
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This indicator is marked Not Applicable, as the country does not have legislation that regulates lobbying [1, 2].
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