The UK and EU are “never, ever getting back together”. But on 19 May, they will be testing the waters. In 2023, David Lammy floated the idea that a Labour government would “start dating” the EU again after the “very, very bitter divorce” of Brexit. That intent was later baked into Labour’s 2024 manifesto.
On Monday Prime Minister Keir Starmer will host European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, European Council President António Costa, and the EU’s foreign and security chief Kaja Kallas in London – the first formal UK-EU Summit since Brexit. What can we expect?
Defence and security cooperation as first step
The first talking point will be defence and security cooperation, the least contentious of issues that the UK and EU are seeking to negotiate, focusing on Russian aggression, the unclear future of NATO, and the US’ reliability as security partner. They are expected to sign an agreement on defence and security cooperation, as long as old ghosts—like fishing—don’t wet the deal.
Geopolitical and strategic considerations are not the only reason behind the willingness to close a deal. Readiness 2030, the White Paper for European Defence published by the EU Commission in early April, enables EU Member States to spend over €800bn on defence through changing its fiscal rules and introducing a new financing instrument. It also incentivises joint procurement – with countries and from companies based in the EU, Ukraine, or in countries with a special trade relationship with the EU (EEA EFTA States). EU accession candidates can be partners too.
The UK falls in none of these categories. Whilst a small part of the costs can come from other countries for smaller products such as ammunition, missiles and small drones, this is unlikely going to be enough to satisfy UK defence heavyweights such as BAE Systems or Babock International.
For a country with a well-advanced defence industry, and a government that has made boosting economic growth its primary mission – and whose success will likely by measured by whether it can make that happen – this is a huge problem. Likewise, the EU is losing out on cooperating with one of the most capable militaries in Europe who have a highly advanced defence industry, and access to a nuclear deterrent.
Looking at the substance
The contents of the agreement that is currently being drawn up by the EU Commission’s European External Action Service (EEAS), are still speculation. Rumoured is an agreement similar to the partnership that Norway has with the EU. This would unlock access to Security Action for Europe (SAFE), the €150bn loan instrument through which the EU Commission will fund joint procurement ventures.
In such an agreement lie opportunities beyond economic growth. On the political side, it would establish a regular dialogue and joint consultation mechanisms between the two. Critical gaps in oversight, intelligence and information-sharing, and strategic planning, which were lost with Brexit, could be closed.
This possibility brings renewed hope for the fight against corruption, as the UK lost access to the bloc’s data and information-sharing systems e.g. on corruption cases in arms transfers – a dangerous blind spot at a time in which both sides are seeking to massively increase their defence spending. Should access to SAFE loans and joint procurement be made conditional on transparency and accountability commitments, the UK’s eligibility to this instrument would bring further benefits to civic oversight of cross-European efforts to rearm rapidly.
A promising start
Whilst it is too early to say that love is in the air, rising security concerns have undeniably pushed both sides closer together. Amongst the many contentious issues yet to be negotiated, defence and security is the one in which the common interests seem to outweigh the differences. The UK needs the EU’s money to boost its economic growth, and the EU needs the UK’s expertise and capabilities on defence to build a credible defence. Economic interests might be at the forefront, but this ‘first date’ also yields hope for strengthened oversight and accountability in the defence sector.
Emily Wegener, Senior Policy and Campaigns Officer, Transparency International Defence & Security